The Arc of a Covenant by Walter Russell Mead

Nov 15, 2023

Perhaps the most lucid, clear-eyed, contextual, and nuanced reading of the entirety of the American/Israeli relationship that I have ever come across, Walter Russell Mead has put together a magnum opus of prose that couldn’t possibly be more timely in the present moment. Mead is a distinguished and accomplished writer of four books along with being a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and in The Arc of a Covenant he traces the special connection and relationship between America, Israel, and the Jewish people from the founding of our nation to the present day. In 585 dizzying pages, he somehow manages to present each of their stories from almost a first-person voice, seemingly putting himself in the shoes of and writing from the perspective of each interested party, sometimes also presenting those perspectives repeatedly for greater emphasis and understanding. Moreover, he manages to explain the differing perspectives and viewpoints of other nations and peoples — including but certainly not limited to, the Palestinians— that have been involved in Middle Eastern affairs for well over a century, which helps the reader see the entirety of the story from their own eyes as well. At it’s heart, this is a book about foreign policy, and how America’s domestic affairs, attitudes, hearts, minds, and thoughts in certain moments shaped their thinking about the world outside of the United States, and how what was happening on the ground in the U.S. directly and indirectly affected what was happening — or what would happen — thousands and thousands of miles away from home. It took me multiple days and many hours to put these notes together so I could try and grasp the depth of Mead’s conclusions, but, as I stated above, the timing could not have been more perfect, and perhaps those that are looking to gain a more complete perspective as to how we arrived at this horrific moment in time can also understand how far we have to go before the Israeli/Palestinian conflict might come to a merciful end.

never has so single a failure in American foreign policy led to so little meaningful reflection and change
ideas that shape American perceptions of Zionism and the state of Israel are deeply rooted and widely dispersed in American history and culture
to write about the American relationship with the Jewish state and the Jewish people is to sketch a portrait of the American spirit at work in the world
American foreign policy remains of supreme importance for the well being and even the survival of the American people and of humanity itself
one must also seek to understand how other people from different religious and philosophical backgrounds understand the world
recent years, the world is drifting steadily into more danger
the state of Israel is a speck on the map of the world, it occupies a continent in the American mind
book is about examining some of America’s deepest and most contested values at a time of great social change
prime directive of American foreign policy since the start of the Cold War, preserve American life while preventing WWIII
problem with using, or attempting to use, moral judgement as the decisive criterion for foreign policy choices, it is much easier and more common for human beings to feel strongly about moral issues than to judge wisely about them
“European Colonizer” narrative about Zionism ignores this reality (for Palestinians) as studiously and as unjustifiably as the earlier “unspotted Zionist” narrative passed over the suffering of the Palestinians
the turn to the right in Israeli politics after 1980 was driven in large part by these refugees from Arab and Muslim persecution
if moralism distorts the American discussion of Israeli policy, identity politics inflames it
the energy driving this activism comes from Americans deepest beliefs about themselves and their identity
passions of identity politics make us angry and they keep us engaged, but they do not always make us wise
the question of Israeli policy must be placed in the strategic context of American foreign policy as a whole
bad theories about how groups of people think and behave, stereotypes, usually lead to bad analysis
human problem and an American problem
Middle East track record, a naive and deterministic optimism has led Americans to one grave error after another
America’s role in the Middle East politics has often been as much less significant than both pro-Zionist and anti-Israel observers assume
Edward Said, Orientalism book, Middle East perceived through a think fog of preexisting prejudices, cultural incomprehension, political context shaped by colonialism and western domination
most of the land that Zionists settled before 1947 was freely sold to them by Arabs
in the war, no Arab state really wanted to see an independent Arab Palestine emerge from the conflict
Neither Arabs as a whole nor Palestinians are nor ever have been a monolithic people unanimously opposed to Israel
Garfinkle, many people share a tendency to think that Jews play a larger role in human society than they actually do — “Jewcentricity”
antisemitism is not just an insidious prejudice, and a moral error, it is an intellectual error and an example of a bad political theory
belief that American Jews control the American policy in Israel is an article of faith in much of the world
question it asks, why does the U.S. support Israel to such an extent? is a perfectly solid and legit one
a student of foreign policy must develop the capacity to engage calmly, dispassionately, and sometimes even cooperatively with people committed to utterly revolting ideas
Israel is something that gentile, antisemites included, and Jews made together
political history of American foreign policy is a history of conflicting ideas about what the national interest means and how to pursue it under particular circumstances
politics, not algebra; art, not science
American policy towards Israel has not always been historically consistent
Israel the victim never drew much American support; Israel the victor found America eager to cooperate
American political system is more than the creature of powerful interest groups operating behind the scenes
to control the policy, public support is needed
tobacco, public opinion changed then the policy changed
most pro Israel coverage in American news is Fox
founded by an Australian, nurtured by non-Jewish Ailes
American policy on Israel may be right or it may be wrong, but it emerges from the same kind of political process and struggle that produces the rest of our policies
21st century, American Jews have consistently voted in greater numbers for candidates seen as more “dovish”
Obama received more support from Jewish votes and more Jewish money than either of his Republican opponents
those who see the Jewish community as monolithic behind a hardline Israel policy do not know much about American Jewish history
as Jewish support for Israel became more nuanced, support for Israel among non Jewish Americans continued to grow
most important turning point was in 1973
Nixon, diplomatic and material support during the Yom Kippur War, helped to save them
beginning of the Zionist movement, it owed much of its power among Jews to its ability to attract gentile support
European life in the 19th century, emancipation of the Jews had its roots in the French Revolution
millions of Jews fled the Russian empire, Jewish population surged in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, fueling a rise in antisemitism
Herzl found himself thinking about the problems of the Jewish people
he would transform himself into the leader of the national movement of the Jewish people
his analysis of the Jewish question in Europe and his vision for how to proceed made him one of the most consequential figures of his time
in just 52 years, the apparently impossible vision of a Jewish state became a reality
Herzl funded his work out of his own pocket and from the contributions of the relatively poor and powerless Jews
it was the powerful idea of Zionism, not the power of the Jews, that brought Herzl to the attention of Europe’s crowned heads
drew the support of powerful gentile leaders, even as Jewish leaders often wanted nothing to do with it
Herzl believed that the world’s Jews were too weak to make assimilation work
ultimately, he predicted, the doors to immigration would shut, leaving millions of Jews trapped in a Europe that would turn increasingly murderous in Jew hatred; he was right
the Zionism that he built was a movement that linked the preferences and passions of a gentile world to the needs of the Jewish people
enlisting powerful Zionist gentile supporters made Zionism a powerful force
favorable view of Jews in the English speaking world, British Reformation led to a reappraisal of the religious position of the Jews
historical and cultural vision that linked the fate of the Jews with the fate of the English speaking world
moved away from the medieval “total society”, to a pluralistic society
fears of capitalism and free markets faded away
world came to harness these forces as the engines of its own rapid development
Reformation, translated Bible, intellectual and emotional center of millions of lives
in closer touch with the Jewish scriptures
New Testament, not very sympathetic literary characters, Jews of the Old Testament are presented as heroes of faith: Abraham, Moses
English Puritans insisted that the OT had to be interpreted literally, as well as figuratively, allegorically, and typologically
literal promise of the Holy Land to real world, physical Jews
key concept in Protestant theology, the idea of a covenant
legal agreements between two parties
at some point in the future God would bring the Jews back to the holy land
new, Puritan understanding, Jews were back in God’s plan, covenant intact
God stood by Israel even when Israel didn’t stand by God
generations of Protestant believers
Jews, small and persecuted, should have survived was as sign that God is real and that he would keep his word
existence of the Jews was evidence for the existence of God
any signs that the Jews were returning to Palestine would be seen as proof that God was acting in history
American scholars and preachers came to conclusions:
Jews remain under God’s special covenant and care
Jews are a nation
to hate or persecute Jews is a crime against God
gift of the Holy Land remains valid
Jews will return to it
God’s blessing on America if the American people understand these truths and build a special relationship with the Jewish people
these ideas influenced millions of Americans from the colonial era to the present day
New England settlements also believed themselves to be under a covenant with God
many Americans compared their situation to that of the Hebrews
Americans were immersed in the images, language, historical ideas of the Hebrew Bible
connection with Israel became a building block of American identity, not just for free whites
eighteenth century, U.S. was well on the way to a new kind of ideal for a Christian society
Jews were a religious minority in a country of religious minorities
capitalism had large consequences for attitudes towards Jews
rise of it led to new attitudes towards economic exchange and banking, to some degree
optimistic philosophy regards the American story as a part of a process of global enlightenment, global peace and brotherhood
until the 1840’s, there were very few Jews in the U.S.
failure of the 1848 revolutions in Germany, economic stresses of the Industrial Revolution led to large numbers of German speaking Jews into the U.S. before the Civil War
second and much larger wave came after 1881 as pogroms and antisemitic legislation spread in Russia
four basic propositions have influenced the way Americans think about their country and its world role
free institutions and free markets will deliver prosperity
transformation of the world is the culmination of the capstone and the fulfillment of humanity’s deepest hopes and fondest desires
providence has chosen Americans to play this role
assist the global spread of these principles
Christianity became the dominant religious faith, Americanism became the dominant civic faith of the country
Americans believed that their country had a messianic vocation to transform the world
Jewish affairs, destinies of the two people seemed linked
English speaking world, for Americans, era of almost inconceivable and intoxicating triumph and produced an overwhelming sense of vindication — post reniassance, Industrial Revolution era
during the nineteenth century there were three separate attempts of Americans to establish settlements in the Holy Land
failed miserably
what was missing was a Jewish national movement
non Jewish Americans expected that Jews would begin to return to Zion, that they would engage in farming there and establish a democratic society
give them their homeland, said Restorationists, and negative characteristics (antisemitism) would disappear
nineteenth century Americans fascinated by the lands of the Bible
no spot on earth held a fascination for Americans greater than Palestine
dry and deserted
Americans expected that the newly restored Israel would have a special relationship with the U.S.
proof positive that the American way was the way of happiness, bringing wealth and power to even the weakest and most despised of the world’s peoples
Jews were better off under liberal governments than under reactionary ones
Jews got civil and political rights
reactionary governments almost always kept Jews under their control
Russia, pogroms and restrictions, created a climate of contempt in the U.S. that still affects U.S. — Russian relations today
increased internationalization if the investment economy seemed to favor the Jews
world of international banking
people in Britain who supported democracy and wanted Britain to become more like America wanted British Jews to have full civil rights in Britain as they did in the U.S.
perception that America is a pro-Jewish power antedates significant Jewish immigration to the U.S.
wars of 20th century, moral depravity beyond anything the world had known
at the same time, spread of democratic ideals, modern medicine, wonders of industrial production, freedom and influence
Zionist movement emerged from and was shaped by a social implosion on an unprecedented scale
Jews were seen as a “bacillus” a germ poisoning the pure Russian nation
hate that Alexander III unleashed in Russia permanently changed America’s relationship to the Jewish people
more than 2M Jews from the Russian Empire and Eastern Europe would emigrate to the U.S. from 1881 and the end of mass immigration in 1924
large majority of American Jews today are descended from this wave of emigration
ethnicity and religion started to matter more
titanic forces of the Industrial Revolution were pulling society apart
national movements did not agree on the brave new world they were trying to build
ethnic groups staked claims based on history
creation of new bonds of solidarity between educated and privileged city dwellers and the peasant masses
nationalists taught the moral duty of caring for one’s own
nationalism often tended to become more virulent and extreme as time went by
massacres and ethnic cleansings were commonplace
completion of Suez Canal turned everything from the Black Sea to the Red Sea into a major theater of international great power rivalry
populations of the Ottoman Empire increasingly resented Christian meddling in imperial affairs
WWI, tiny bitter nationalist rivalries in the East had the power to plunge all of Europe into war
wave of migration between 1880 and 1924 altered the face of America forever
Great Wave, massive increase in Italian, Polish, southeast European immigrants
Jewish immigration was conspicuous
American cities saw a large internal migration
new class of super rich Americans rose to prominence
tension around migration, outbreaks of nativism and zenophobia
American decision to slash migration from countries with large Jewish populations was partly, though not exclusively, motivated by antisemitism
1924 Johnson Reed Act was the most important single act of legislation in American history from the standpoint of the State of Israel and the Zionist movement
if the U.S. had not voted to restrict immigration so drastically, it is probable that the country of Israel would not exist today
number of American Jews and the signs of American antisemitism both continued to grow in the years following the Civil War
between 1880 and 1940 antisemitism in the U.S. would become a much more formidable force than at any time in our history
prejudices of the old country with them
WASP ascendency
nativist anxiety, about demographic and cultural change mixed with agrarian fears and resentment connected to the decline of the family farm
muckracking journalism, Turner, claimed that Jews dominated the human trafficking business
civil and legal equality of Jewish Americans was never endangered
Jews were not the object of special legislation
American Jews were basically one more minority in a nation that was full of minorities
American Jews also benefited from the presence of American Catholics
abroad, Jews would be treated like other people
at home, Jewish Americans would be treated like other Americans
we can learn to see the world at least to some degree as our predecessors saw it
Lodge consensus, sought to advance American interests in an unstable world while minimizing America’s exposure to the endless entanglements and unending wars
after the Great War, the “national question”, the quest to build ethnic nation states on the ruins of multinational empires
remain to this day very powerful in the American public mind
let every people govern themselves, Americans reasoned, and the need for mass migration would largely disappear
one red line after WWI, Americans were not going to intervene in national quarrels overseas
Blackstone Memorial, petition asking President Harrison to use his influence to persuade European leaders to prevail upon the Ottoman sultan to open the province of Palestine for Jewish settlement and the creation of the Jewish national home
Reform Judaism was originally built around a modernization of Jewish faith that explicitly rejected the goal of a return from exile
any talk of a Jewish state was an attack on the ideas that allowed Jews to participate in the life of the countries in which they lived
Blackstone Memorial was the first draft of America’s proposed answer to the international Jewish Question
in 1917, Balfour as Britain’s foreign secretary sent his famous letter to Lord Rothschild
U.S. had declared war on Germany in April of 1917; Balfour Declaration was issued on November 2nd
from WWI on, one of the foreign policy ideas that united liberals, conservatives, internationalists, and isolationists in the U.S. was that the U.S. should offer diplomatic support to the goal of establishing a Jewish homeland in Palestine
rich and well connected American Jews opposed the Balfour Declaration
most Americans in the 1920s knew little and cared less about what had happened in Palestine between the fall of the last Jewish commonwealth and the fall of the Ottoman Empire
Americans at this time saw Palestinian Arabs more as part of a larger Arab nation rather than as a unique people
strong and vibrant national identity that we see today is a product of 20th century history, a product above all of the conflict with Zionism
also of the frustration of many Palestinians with the half hearted and other self interested approaches that many Arab leaders took toward the Palestinian movement
young nation does not mean that they are illegitimate
Americans supported the creation of independent Arab countries
both the Jews and the Arabs would gain, it seemed to many Americans
strongly suggest that without the restrictive American immigration legislation the Jewish population in Palestine might never have reached numbers large enough to build and maintain an independent state
Zionism only succeeded among Jews as it became clear that integration into the countries where they lived had failed
U.S. consistently refused to provide financial assistance or military assistance to the Zionist pioneers
neither Zionism itself nor the Jewish Question as a whole was a priority for American foreign policy
1930’s, State Department said little and did less as anti Jewish laws and policies were imposed not only in Germany but in Poland, Hungary, and other countries
Jews in Europe and Jewish American activists in the U.S. there increasingly appeared only one option left for the persecuted Jews of the Old World: Palestine
America’s Jewish leadership would not wholeheartedly embrace Zionism until 1943
the new state began with an act of defiance that it intended to repeat: Israel declared its independence as it rejected American advice
the State Department feared that if the Zionists launched a war to build their state, Arab opinion throughout the Middle East would be radicalized
Truman was a strong man but a weak President
man of conviction and consistency
now considered one of the most successful American presidents
wasn’t FDR, he was his successor
by 1946, the broad Democratic coalition of FDR was aging; split between progressive northern liberals, big city political machihnes, and conservative white southerners
few Presidents have accomplished so much in such difficult circumstances
it is difficult for people today to comprehend the psychological and mental state of our ancestors whose heads the great storm broke
depravity in the human spirit that seemed to destroy all hope for the kind of gradual amelioration in the human condition that had for two centuries been the mainstay of American and Enlightenment optimism
story of Truman’s foreign policy is the story of his dogged attempt to keep as much of the Dems as possible with him while he led the country on the path toward a Cold War strategy that, initially, most liberal Dems abhorred
in 1947, the balance in American politics began to change
evidence that Stalin intended to ignore his Yalta commitments, rethinking the benefits of U.S. — Soviet cooperation
Truman helped reconcile American liberals to his shift away from FDR’s WWII foreign policy toward the Cold War strategy that would guide the U.S. for the next 40 years
one of the most accomplished presidential foreign policy performances in the history of the U.S.
immigration into Palestine appeared to be the only possible alternative to leaving European Jews in displaced persons camps
summer of 1945, American support for the pro-Zionist Blackstone position was stronger than ever
for British policymakers, substantial Jewish immigration into Palestine meant the end of Britain’s ability to manage its relationships with the Arabs
State Department and the defense establishment thought that the British relationship should continue to take priority over the Palestine question
by 1948, Washington had largely accepted that it needed Britain much more than originally believed
in 1945 and 1946 the Americans ended Lend Lease assistance to Britain
these decisions fed the anti-American anticapitalist current of opinion in the Labour Party and greatly exacerbated Britain’s postwar economic difficulties
London consistently failed to grasp the strength of anti-Britain feelings in the U.S.
British economic crisis in 1946 and early 1947, and the grinding impact of postwar austerity on Labour and national morale, all contributed to Britain’s decision to turn the Palestine problem over to the U.N. in February 1947
America’s harsh financial treatment of Britain after the war means that Britain could not long bear the high costs of a sustained effort to hold Palestine against the will of its Jewish inhabitants
American decisions that had the most impact on British policy in Palestine would have been exactly what they were if the organized pro-Zionist lobbies had not existed
Brits had conquered Palestine from the Ottoman Empire in 1917
since then a flood of Jewish immigrants had built a proto-state
end of WWII, Jews of Palestine had a health care system, education, local government, range of economic and political institutions that were ready to function as part of an independent state
Jews of Palestine, believing that the survival of their people was at stake
Arabs of Palestine before 1917 they lived under Ottoman admin
after 1917, except for religious organizations, the British provided the governing structures within which most Arabs lived
1947 the Jews of Palestine had created an embryonic state whose emergence could only be prevented by the credible threat and perhaps the deployment of clearly superior force by outside powers
one diplomatic effort after another to bring the Arabs and Jews to the peace table foundered on the hopeless issue of migration
Palestinian Jews thought that partition was beginning to look more attractive
Ben-Gurion reached the conclusion in fall of 1946 that their demand for a Jewish state in the while of Palestine was unrealistic
economic weakness rather than American opposition that broke the back of Britain’s Palestine strategy and eliminated the British Army as an obstacle to the establishment of a Jewish state
Britain’s decisions to reduce its commitments to Turkey and Greece launched the most creative and significant period in foreign policy of the Truman administration, and perhaps the most important such era in the history of the U.S.
March of 1947, Truman announced it would come to the aid of Turkey and Greece under the Truman Doctrine, under which the U.S. would support any government against Soviet aggression
stepping up to play the great power role that Britain could no longer sustain
NATO, European reconstruction and development would become known as the Marshall Plan
Stalin was an unlikely person to come to the defense of the Zionist movement
full scale purse aimed principally at Soviet Jews
at a critical time, Jews of Palestine got indispensable support from Stalin
he saw an opportunity to advance several of his foreign policy objections
from his standpoint, primary goal was to prevent the renewal of the Anglo-American alliance, tensions with U.S. and Britain
if helping the Jews of Palestine could shake or even overturn British power from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf
Jews were much more popular on the left, a useful asset to build popular support for communist parties
support to a left wing party open to coalitions with communists in the U.S., while undermining Truman’s hopes for reelection
after Israel achieved its independence, France would become its most important ally, arming Israel, providing it with diplomatic support, and even helping it develop nuclear weapons in defiance of American pressure
the idea of a pro-Soviet Jewish state resonated in the national security bureaucracies in the hothouse atmosphere of 1947–1948
Kennan, U.S. concluded that the ramifications of mounting Arab ill will, whole structure of peace and security in the Near East and Mediterranean would be directly or indirectly affected
CIA: Arabs will use force to oppose the establishment of a Jewish state; without Arab and British cooperation, the Commission will be unable to carry out the task assigned to it
spring of 1948, Arabs were well supplied with arms from Great Britain; the Jews had nowhere to turn
Truman had an arms embargo against Palestinian Jews
March of 1948, with the Jews of Jerusalem under siege, internal fighting over Palestine policy in the administration reached a peak
spring of 1948, Jews of Palestine, with an assist from Stalin, saved Truman
Czechs were prepared to sell weapons and equipment ordered by the Wehrmacht during the war, but never delivered
by May 15, when the British mandate officially ended, the Jews of Palestine were receiving regular arms deliveries from Czechs
Britain’s adherence to the U.N. arms embargo left its Arab allies unable to resupply depleted stockpiles of ammunition
Stalin tiled toward the Zionists just long enough for Israel to win the war
shortly thereafter, relations between Israel and the Soviet Union turned into a deep freeze
from Stalin’s perspective, the more deeply the U.N. involved itself in Middle East questions, the more influence the Soviets would have
shock of Arab defeat would sweep the old pro British order away
Stalin’s successors would find friends and allies among a new wave of nationalistic Arab regimes
Truman’s faith in a “trusteeship” was neither practical nor politic
Marshall and aides remained uninformed about Stalin’s weapon shipments
by the end of the summer, Israeli forces would have better arms, more ammunition, and a stronger air force than their opponents
lack of unity and commitment among the Arab states to a common battle against Israel
without Mrs. Roosevelt and her supporters, there was no future for the Truman administration
foreign policy is and must be grounded in domestic politics
Soviet Union would recognize the new state very quickly
May 15, Jews were going to declare a state
American recognition made all the difference in how Truman’s leadership would be perceived by the American people and by his own party
midnight Tel Aviv time, Israel proclaimed its independence; 11 minutes later, Truman extended de facto recognition
not Truman’s fault that the American delegation at the U.N. were caught off guard by the policy shift
Truman stuck to his principles
keeping the Democratic party united as he led the country into the Cold War with the Soviet Union was a big goal Truman never lost sight of
Israel’s history, when the country was weak and poor, the U.S. was more interested in building relationships with Israel’s bitterest Arab opponents than with the Jewish state
only after Israel’s developed nuclear weapons and emerged as a regional power did it move to the center of the American diplomatic agenda
it acquired American support because it had grown strong
Cold War was America’s overriding strategic concern
forced a massive reassessment and reinvention of American foreign policy
Americans were driven by hopes and fears
evidence about German crimes, Holocaust, scarred the American conscience in ways that still affect us. today
America’s use of nuclear weapons against Japan, “mutually assured destruction”, pillar of thought, end of the world
U.S. was becoming a global power at a uniquely dire moment
belief in some kind of singular world role had always been an element in American thought
American security commitments had to be extended
keep the allies independent
willing to work with any form of government that was willing to resist the bigger enemy
between May of 1948 and the final cease fire in 1949, Washington backed proposals to stop the fighting, allow Palestinian refugees to return to their homes, and reduce Israel’s territorial gains
Arab world was almost infinitely more important to American security and prosperity than the tiny Jewish state, Egypt most important
newly independent states, keep theses states out of Moscow’s orbit
from 1950 to 1958, U.S aid to Iran climbed from 103M to over 1B, largest recipient of American aid in the Middle East between 1946 and 1976
Nasser chose the Soviet Union over the U.S.
rise of Israel was impossible to ignore
significant military power
power speaks to power
Israel had unmatched intelligence about the region
reassuring Israel that the U.S. was unequivocally committed to its security was, Kennedy believed, the best and perhaps the only way to persuade Israel to give up its quest for nuclear weapons
Kennedy used the term “special relationship”, comparing it to U.S — U.K
1967 Six Day War, Israel defeated Egypt, Syria, Jordan
ease with which Israel defeated threatening Arab armies shocked most of the world, but not Washington
Six Day War, Israel’s position in world opinion changed
military juggernaut
Meir contemplated preemptive attacks against Egypt and Syria in 1973, but Kissinger warned her that the world would condemn her even though the world took a blind eye to similar tactics in 1967
Goliath had to show more restraint
deeper cooperation between Jerusalem and Washington
sudden rise in the power and wealth of the oil producing Arab states was the most dramatic development of the 1970s
70’s were the years where Israel started to receive largest amount of military aid
alignment with Israel helped Nixon and his successors displace the Soviet Union and solidify American position in the Middle East
long era of post WWII prosperity was challenged, “stagflation”, Vietnam, energy crisis
managing both the geopolitical and economic consequences of a historic wealth transfer from energy consuming to energy producing countries would become one of America’s highest priorities in the troubled 70's
Nixon Doctrine: problem will be increasingly handled by, and the responsibility for it taken by, the Asian nations themselves
Middle East, marginalization of the Soviet Union, regional order, result in turn enhanced American power and prestige around the world
context out of which the U.S. — Israel alignment emerged
relationship with Israel was a cornerstone of a new edifice of American power rising in the Middle East
1973, OPEC oil embargo to the U.S., drastic cut in production
biggest shock to the American economy and to the functioning of American society since WWII
Sadat’s visionary recasting of Egypt’s regional role led to a transformation of the American role in the Middle East
attacked Israel first; first step toward peace would be war, Syria and Egypt attacked
Soviet influence and prestige suffered blows, Egypt moved decisively from Nassar’s pan-Arabism to Sadat’s Egypt First policy
U.S. came out of it deeply and publicly aligned with both Israel and Egypt
war ended by creating a series of opportunities that American diplomacy would go on to exploit
Sadat would claim a victory against Israel
Soviets discredited, U.S. emerged as the dominant superpower in the region
Kissinger, shuttle diplomacy, brokering disengagement and withdrawal agreements between Arabs and Israelis that calmed the region while securing and end to the oil embargo and a deepening of American ties with both sides
1970s, Arabs and Iranians entered the American imagination as villains
arms sales allowed Americans to court the traditional Arab monarchies and increase the collective defense capacities, while also ensuring that the Gulf petrostates poured billions of dollars back into the U.S.
oil shock, suddenly the Arab world was awash in cash
the U.S. wanted to sell more weapons to the Arab nations, it would have to deepen its relationship with Israel — a paradoxical relationship
supporting the Israel military to balance the new threat of Iran
fall of the Shah, rise of Reagan, cemented new arrangement
QME, qualitative military edge
under this doctrine, the U.S. ensures that Israel will always have the capabilities to deter and defeat hostile neighbors in conventional military battle
policy since the 80’s, enshrined into law in 2008
Israelis, guarantee for their security
conservative Arab states, Israeli strength helps secure their own independence — good American weapons
QME has served on balance to reduce tensions, draw key countries closer to the U.S.
1970s and 80s saw transformation of AIPAC into a presence, rise of Jacksonian and evangelical Zionism, establishment of strong bipartisan coalition in support of the alliance
“refuseniks”, Jews whose application for exit visas were rejected by Soviet authorities, played a significant role in the creation and implementation of a post-Nixonian foreign policy
1974, Jackson-Vanik Amendment in the U.S. Trade Act, restricted American trade with nonmarket economies that limited the right of Jews to emigrate
for all of its faults, the Soviet government protected its Jewish citizens to the best of its abilities against the Nazi’s
Soviet forces who liberated extermination camps, but it was no utopia for Jews
amendment was one of the ways that signaled the growing revival of American strength and purpose
art of American statecraft lies less in choosing between idealism and realism than in judiciously blending them together
Cold War, U.S. — Israel cooperation intensified the alliance became more controversial
beginning with 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq and the financial crisis, world events diverged from the path that many Americans once confidently assumed they would take
end of Cold War, American policymakers thought that wrinkles had been smoothed out of capitalism
social and economic system was the culmination of a historical process
economic and political model was easily exportable
believed identity wars were over — they were all wrong
impossible to write off as a total failure though
economic opportunities to billions, living standards rose, life expectancies increased
competition from low wage manufacturing economies, Information Revolution
this would challenge and even reverse one of the most fundamental features of the modernization process: convergence
beautiful dream, but history had other plans
world beyond America’s borders was becoming a more geopolitically competitive and liberal place
fissures and cracks, existential danger, gradually returning
free trade, deregulation, financial deregulation, Washington Consensus, did not last
Russia developed some of the most advanced cyber capabilities, masters at exploiting global financial markets
Russia and China see Washington’s vision of a post Cold War world as a threat to their regimes and as a strategic threat to their national power
“blue model” “blue state” “blue city” America: a highly regulated system of economic and political order based on a mature industrial economy in a liberal political system
golden age of American middle class was coming to a close
Americans, “soft power”, freedom, international leadership — others do not see Americans in quite these flattering terms
WWII, people wanted what America had
gradual decay of blue model American society would produce a profound crisis of American identity
post 1990 developments in American life, failure of convergence led to a crisis of creed, identity crisis
failure of class convergence
stagnation in living standards
deep and easily visible class differences
evidence that the national creed wasn’t true and was an existential problem
academics, increasingly precarious future as an oversupply of applicants flooded the market and colleges staffed more positions with poorly paid, insecure adjunct teachers
Middle East peace process, sustained and most expensive single diplomatic effort in the history of the U.S.
peace agreement, MacGuffin, an object whose intrinsic importance was dwarfed by events that is set in motion
between 1990 and 2001, no foreign country has ever received this level of sustained American attention
involvement in the Middle East was unavoidable considering both the domestic and international demands on American presidents
Arab leaders and American presidents to manage this tension
peace process highlight and to strengthen America’s uniquely powerful role in the Middle East
heading off a regional arms race
peace would help cement the peace of the world
the list of rejected solutions is a long one
peace after the Cold War, deep interstate relationship that involved economic integration and a liberal security order
conflict that engages some of the most volatile and emotional issues of our times
for Palestinians who do not accept the legitimacy of Britain’s seizure of Palestine in WWI, the Balfour Declaration and subsequent immigration of hundreds of thousands of Jews represents a war crime
Palestinian cause is still seen in much of the world as a success
deep sympathy and solidarity
ongoing struggle between Christianity and Islam
at the end of the day, neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians shared the American faith in liberal order
Jewish state was founded on a reasonable and historically justified skepticism about the ability of liberal order to protect Jews
only Stalin’s willingness to defy the arms embargo brought victory to the Jews
lesson that Israel could only count on itself
Herzl was right: Jewish people entrust their survival to liberal institutions and liberal ideas, they will die
American Jews fixed on universal principles: Israeli Jews relentlessly needed to survive
plurality of Israeli Jews who trace their ancestry to the Middle East and the old Ottoman Empire are also deeply skeptical about the prospects for liberal order in the Middle East
real problem for the peace process is the widespread sense that the status quo works reasonably well for Israel, that a Palestinian state, which might be controlled by Hamas, cannot be trusted
power disparity continues in terms of any realistic agreement must inevitably fall far short of what most Palestinians believe justice demands
how can you give away someone else’s home?
it was resistance to liberalism and not just to Zionism that made the Palestinians a people
world wanted to forget them
Palestinians refused to be forgotten — resisted, persisted, fought
a new Palestinian state would probably not have an easy birth
settlements are a continuing source of trouble
problems for peace negotiators
as the number and density of Israeli settlements have grown, the issue has become simultaneously harder to solve and more consequential for the health of the peace process
peace process worked so well for the U.S. in large part because so many other states in the region and beyond benefited from it
PLO’s support for Hussein, Gulf states expelled more than 300K Palestinian expatriates, roughly half the number of Palestinians forced out of Israel in 1948
Arafat had only himself to blame for this
golden cage for the Palestinian movement
movement’s moral authority began to erode among Palestinians and the Arab world at large
deep connection between Israel and the American right is unique
what drew the American right to Israel was a perceived uniqueness, God’s intervention in history or as the focus of a bitter, irrational hatred by groups who often hated the U.S. and its capitalist economy
beginning with the upheavals of the 60’s, new socially liberal multiethnic American establishment based largely in the Dem party
sons and daughters of liberal Republicans became socially liberal, fiscally conservative Dems
base of the Republican party became socially conservative and more demonstrably Christian, elite shift away from the GOP was accelerated
Israel was part of the glue that held the Sun Belt coalition together and was encoded into the ideological DNA of the Republican Party from the Reagan era through the Trump years
support for Israel helped unite the Southern California with the old South
WWII history of the American south, Bourbons, conservatives, agrarian populists
New South supporters closest thing to a Progressive movement
1950s forward Sun Belt and southern entrepreneurs and politicians were drawn toward the Republican Party, seen as more business friendly than the Dems, but opposed the dominance of the eastern establishment within it
New Right movement of “hyperAmericanism”, individualistic capitalism, Christianity, unabashed and unrestrained American patriotism were the foundation on which Sun Belt Republicanism set up its shop
competitiveness appealed to many voters
hundreds of thousands of Rust Belt residents were packing their bags
Israel played a central role in both the religious and the patriotic projects of the New Right
return of the Jews to the Holy Land
Billy Graham was a huge part of this
21st century, Protestantism had plunged
Graham led a movement of Sun Belt Christianity to fill the void left by the decline of mainline Protestantism
“Evangelical”, ancient Greek, “good news”
Graham, divide was between “ethical Christianity” and “salvationist Christianity”
Graham’s message caught fire, evangelical movement was a transformative force in American politics and culture
mainline Protestant churches were losing members
existence of Israel helped evangelical religion become a major force in American life
rise of Israel is seen to prove the truth of salvationist Christianity in the real world
existence and the prosperity of Israel provided reassurance and relief
defense of a historical accuracy of the Hebrew scriptures
biblical archaeology continues to play a significant role today both in Zionist politics and evangelical apologetics
movement was much closer to the pro business and racially moderate sensibilities of the New South
gap between tradition minded northern Catholics and the Dem establishment widened
drawn to the social conservatism of Sun Belt Republicanism
Graham laid the foundation for a new breed of Evangelical preachers that would include conservative Protestants, Catholics, Orthodox Jews who supported traditional moral teachings against the post 1960s values revolution
poor Protestant Scots Irish who arrived late in the colonial period were the largest single element in the formation of non elite white culture in the U.S.
suspicious of the federal government, like Andrew Jackson, some of the highest and lowest elements of American character
committed and persistent elements in Donald Trump’s political coalition
motivated by dangers and threats
strength is the foundation of the Jacksonian affinity for Israel
Israel’s approach to power
support strong measures and harsh ones against terrorists
America First terms, allies with similar interests
Israel holds up its end of the bargain when it comes to defending itself
alliance is a source of strength and prestige
symbolic surrogate of the U.S.
George H.W. Bush sought to avoid the costs in the Arab and Islamic world of an perceived excessive support of Israel
younger Bush was personally and politically much more attuned to Israel and its American supporters
Bush and Obama agreed that the best way to address the specter of religious violence was to eliminate the “root causes” of the radical ideology that inspired it
Obama’s second term and under Trump, policymakers sought to extricate the U.S. from the Middle East as much as possible
looking to scale back American involvement
problem of radical and violent group emerging from the culture of Islamism remains a serious concern for American defense and foreign policy more than two decades after 9/11
events of 2001 reinforced this identification of the Israeli, American and divine causes
Bush and his closest advisors believed that the danger of inaction was greater than the danger of moving too fast
war in Iraq became a millstone around the neck of both the president and the party
accelerated the breakup of the Sun Belt Republican coalition and open the door to Trump
Iran was much more formidable opponent to Israel than Saddam could ever be
destruction of Saddam was a disaster for Israel as it opened the door to Iran
Iraq war also damaged Israel’s position inside the U.S.
stimulated rise of isolationist sentiment
realist restrainer, growing group who opposed what they saw as excessive interventionism in American foreign policy
if we wish to inspire the world, we should improve our society at home
Jews and their allies exercise unique power over governments where Jewish interests are concerned has always been a cornerstone of antisemitism
Bush’s 2002 decision to break off relations with Arafat and to make further U.S. participation in the peace process contingent on a change in Palestinian leadership
next to the invasion of Iraq, the most shocking act of his presidency
speak of peace at an international conference in the morning and plan the go ahead for a suicide attack on a civilian target in the afternoon was a secret to no one — Arafat
Wall, snaked across the West Bank
Bush admin supported Sharon’s construction
in this ill grounded optimism, Bush and his advisors were tragically and destructively wrong
Obama admin would fall victim to the same ideologically driven American optimism when it embraced the Arab Spring
Bush team reasoned that a democratic transition in Palestine was the first step towards peace
Greater Middle East, beautiful in theory, unrealizable on a map
Hamas stunned Washington by winning the 2006 election, the prospect of a Democratic peace between Israelis and Palestinians faded away
Bush, Clinton, Obama, failures in Middle East peacemaking reflected the widening gap between the world Americans wanted to live in and the planet they actually inhabited
in many ways Obama was the “Black Kennedy”
meaning of Obama’s victory meant America still worked
sadly, these hopeful expectations would remain unfulfilled
racial resentment among both Blacks and the working class whites was on the rises during the Obama years
internationally, years were challenging
hated and despised in the Middle East, Russia and China would emerge as bitter and determined opponents of the U.S.
Iran, JCPOA, Paris Climate accords, vulnerable and weak
Bush and Obama were two President’s were profoundly mistaken about the forces reshaping the world
Obama at one time, the election of a liberal democrat would have been good news for Israel
by 2008 the picture had altered
late 1940s and early 1950s, to be pro-Jewish was to be antifascist
U.S., pro Israel sentiment was also strongest on the left
for much of its history Israel was one of the most socialist countries in the democratic world
kibbutzim, collective farms
histadrut, a labor union headed by future Prime Minister Gurion, owned many of the largest enterprises in Israel
that a country this socialist could be both dynamic and democratic was fascinating to the world
civil rights movement was a hotbed of pro Zionist sentiment with King
years after WWII, the world was filled with refugees
early postwar decades the epidemic of violence, ethnic cleansing and murder continued
midst of this chaos the plight of the Palestinians did not command as much attention as would later be the case
1967, Palestinians began to look both more unique and more shocking
Jews were looking less like hapless victims of persecution and more like oppressors
rise of the political right in Israel, Israel began to look more like an avatar of American capitalism in the Middle East, and strident anti-Zionism began to emerge
nationalism was increasingly rejected
European Union created a new kind of European sensibility
nationalism was a backward and dangerous force
Europeans increasingly recoiled from the moral and military costs of power seeking
see Israel’s experiences wielding power in the unhappy lens of their own recent colonial history
Israeli’s gradually morphed from victims of fascism to avatars of European colonialism
Malcolm X, new generation of Black leaders began to see closer similarities between the Palestinian and Black causes
no ethnic or racial group in the U.S. except for Blacks voted for Obama in higher percentages than American Jews
to Americans, the idea that Jews were a national group and that American Jews could be proud of their Jewish national identity while being fully integrated into the American nation made Zionism look like a natural and normal exercise of the right of self determination
mainline churches have grown increasingly critical of Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians
context of continuing goodwill toward the Jewish people and to American Jews, however
Obama admin basing American national strategy on unrealistic assumptions about the short term transformational power of American ideals
like most Americans, Obama admin overestimated the role that admiration for American ideology plays in global attitudes toward the U.S.
slow to understand both the danger of Chinese and Russian opposition and the dramatic growth in their ability to frustrate American designs
decline in power of liberal ideology, return of full fledged geopolitical competition
admin accepted the realist restrainer view that the U.S. was overextended in the Middle East
what Israel needed from the U.S. was tough love
Washington’s ability and willingness to support democracy movements always had to be conditioned and limited by the pressing need to do business with the governments in power
Arab Spring, enthusiasm of younger folks prevailed, Mubarak forced out
Egypt’s liberals were politically isolated and organizationally weak
military let the protests continue as a way of forcing Mubarak to abandon his dynastic ambitions
dumping of Mubarak horrified and appalled Gulf rulers
clear following Benghazi that neither democracy nor liberal order was coming to the Middle East anytime soon
viewed from the region, the U.S. looked less formidable
since 2012, the U.S. has been more interested in reducing its commitments than in transforming the region
from the standpoint of American foreign policy, the country’s new energy wealth was a game changer
significant transfer of income away from OPEC to the U.S.
American prestige, favorability and credibility dropped in most of the region, hostile Russia established itself as a Middle East power for the first time since the Cold War
in American politics, Obama’s Middle East policy was a success
nuclear agreement with Iran, use Israel policy to unify and energize his supporters
Americans were ready to move on
desire to find a diplomatic alternative to war with Iran was a long standing and justifiable concern
Israeli — Palestinian peace process flickered and died during his second term
Obama years, Israeli politics had moved to the right
Hamas takeover in Gaza in 2007 left the Palestinian movement divided
2013, neither Israeli’s nor Palestinians had much intellectual respect for America’s political leadership
Obama officials failed to grasp the changing nature of Israeli society
growing ultra Orthodox and Hasidic populations
Israel’s shift to the right in economics and security policy
Arab birthrates have been falling and Jewish birthrates rising for most of this century in Israel
rising Palestinian skepticism about the value of a two state solution represents heightened radicalization for some
for others, it represents demobilization, indifference, despair
JCPOA agreement with Iran led to an all out struggle between Obama and AIPAC
Israel lobby lost the battle over the JCPOA
Obama fought and won, more policy battles with Israel than any of his predecessors
next to Clinton, he was the most popular President in modern times among American Jews
Israel policy is not the most important issue for many American Jews
Obama’s approach to Israel and the Middle East reflected the values and ideas of large numbers of American Jews
post historical foreign policy consensus lost political traction, alternative ideas — Trump’s America First policy — Sanders movement, sought to fill the void
attitudes toward Israel became more tribal
Trump, world order was a web of obligations and restrictions that threatened American sovereignty
offered Israel the kind of unstinting support that the Jewish state had never previously received
used Israel policy to seal the bods that united his base
away from Sun Belt Republicanism to antiestablishment populism
1990s, manufacturing jobs leaving the north for the south for the rest of the world
return to politics of class
2010, immigration had returned to levels last seen at the peak of the Great Wave
inevitable cultural and social stress that attends great waves of immigration
return to race at the center of American politics helped pull the Sun Belt coalition apart
American conservatism became angrier and less optimistic
Trump, like populists generally, found that easy to exploit
widening fissures in American conservative Protestantism
for Trump, Israel retained its talismanic powers
Middle East policies, dramatic headlines and diplomatic developments that looked like historic successes to his base
moving the embassy was, for Trump, a no brainer
2017, he formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel
support for Israel proved to be a useful wedge issue for Trump
Americans alienated from national elite culture and policy, Trump’s political genius, luck, lay in his ability to perceive that the U.S. had reached this grim state and to mobilize this alienation into a movement
by claiming a uniquely strong affiliation with Israel, Trump was wrapping himself in the American flag, appeal of his populist movement
hawkish instincts of his Jacksonian supporters
made opposition to the Iran deal an important part of his campaign
Iran policy kept Republicans enthusiastically united, burnished his pro Israel credentials
geopolitically speaking, the Arabs and Israelis were turning into strategic allies
for many, though by no means all, Americans, including American Jews, the lessons of the 20th century seemed to be that America worked
American Jews, some say, are “white Jews”, invested in the perpetuation of an oppressive system that benefits them
many on the hard left and hard right also see Zionism as illegitimate
2016 platform of the BLM movement asserts that Israel is worse than an apartheid state
for both Israelis and Palestinians, private quarrel must be fought out in the glare of global publicity
for Jews, this is a modern form of an ancient problem
now the Jews and Palestinians are stuck with each other
the driving forces behind Americans fascination with Israel originate outside the American Jewish community and are among the most powerful forces of American life

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